Obama’s approval rating is below 50 percent in 37 states, ranging from a 26 percent rating in Utah to a 49 percent rating in Michigan. Obama is at 50 percent or higher in just 13 states, from a 50 percent rating in Minnesota to a 63 percent rating in Hawaii. The president is most popular in Washington DC, where his job approval rating is an astonishing 83 percent.
After DC, Obama’s top ten states are: Hawaii 63 percent; Rhode Island 58 percent; Vermont 56 percent; New York 55 percent; Massachusetts 55 percent; Maryland 55 percent; New Jersey 53 percent; Connecticut 53 percent; California 52 percent; and Washington 51 percent.
Finishing up the 13 states in which Obama has his head above the water: Illinois 51 percent; Delaware 51 percent; and Minnesota 50 percent.
The ten states where Obama’s approval is lowest are: Utah 26 percent; Wyoming 28 percent; Alaska 29 percent; West Virginia 31 percent; Idaho 31 percent; Montana 34 percent; Oklahoma 35 percent; Alabama 36 percent; Tennessee 37 percent; and North Dakota 37 percent.
States where Obama is just below the 50 percent mark are: Michigan 49 percent; Wisconsin 49 percent; Maine 47 percent; Oregon 47 percent; and Iowa, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania — all key electoral states — where Obama is at 46 percent.
“The 50 percent approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50 percent job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected,” write Gallup. “Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects. Historically, two presidents below 50% in their final approval rating before the election — George W. Bush and Harry Truman — won, and three, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush, lost.”